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Monday, August 21, 2006

Smizik: WVU has clear path to national title game


By Bob Smizik, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

There are some significant negatives involved in being a football member of the Big East Conference, and when put together they translate into this: A national lack of respect for the league, which is a distant last in quality among the six Bowl Championship Series-affiliated conferences.

In the Associated Press preseason rankings, for example, there are only two Big East teams -- West Virginia (fifth) and Louisville (13th) -- in the Top 25. The Southeastern Conference has five and the other four BCS leagues, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and Atlantic Coast, have four.

If all 43 teams receiving votes are included, the Big East still only has two teams in the mix. The SEC has nine, the Big Ten seven, the Big 12 and ACC six and the Pac-10 five.

It was no different last season. In the final AP poll, only two Big East teams were ranked in the Top 25 -- West Virginia (fifth) and Louisville (19th). Of the 42 teams receiving votes, only two were from the Big East.

Part of the reason for this is the Big East is the smallest of the leagues with eight members. But the greater reason comes down to quality of teams, not size of league.

But with the bad comes the good. Inherent in belonging to a league lacking in quality teams comes a schedule lacking in quality opponents.

Which is why the pick here to win the 2006 national championship is West Virginia.

This is not to say the Mountaineers have the best team in the country. They don't. If they played No. 1-ranked Ohio State to open the season, they'd lose. Same with No. 2 Notre Dame. But reaching the national championship game, which will be played Jan. 8 in Arizona, is not just about being the best team. It's about avoiding losses and staying high in the rankings -- while those around you lose -- to be invited to the title game. Because of its schedule and its ability, West Virginia has the best chance of any team in the nation to do that.

Once there, of course, its chances of winning are even or slightly less than even. But getting there is the most difficult part and considering the Mountaineers have the best chance of doing that, you have to give them the best chance of any other team of winning.

They have, for example, a better chance of reaching the title game than Ohio State, which must play four top-20 teams, including No. 3 Texas at Austin on Sept. 9. Same with Notre Dame, which plays three top-20 teams, including No. 6 Southern California in Los Angeles on Nov. 25.

The Mountaineers have no such formidable obstacles in their path. The only top 20 team they face is Louisville on the road in November. Other than that game, they barely will be challenged. Not only are there six other unranked and relatively soft Big East opponents, but their non-conference schedule is lacking in quality teams.

Their five non-conference opponents are Marshall, Eastern Washington, Maryland, East Carolina and Mississippi State. Only Eastern Washington, a Division I-AA team, had a winning record last season. Marshall (4-7), a fierce intrastate rival, and Maryland (5-6), an almost annual matchup, might normally provide a test, but neither appear to be in West Virginia's class. East Carolina (5-6) and Mississippi State (3-8) will have home-field advantage but nothing else going for them.

In conference play, the Mountaineers open with Syracuse and at Connecticut before being off 13 days before the Louisville game. After the Cardinals come Cincinnati, Pitt, South Florida and Rutgers. Only Pitt, at Heinz Field, resembles a challenge.

Is an unbeaten season a sure thing? Absolutely not. Nor is there any certainty that if the Mountaineers finish undefeated, they'll make it to the national title game. It's possible that two other teams will finish with unbeaten records and because of superior strength of schedule those teams will advance to the title game.

But all things considered, you have to like the Mountaineers' chances.

None of the above is to suggest West Virginia is only a decent teams blessed with an easy schedule. The Mountaineers are excellent. They're loaded with talent and coming off a smashing upset of George in the Sugar Bowl last season they should be bursting with confidence.

Quarterback Pat White and running back Steve Slaton verged on the unstoppable last season as freshmen. With a year of experience and confidence, there's no reason to believe they won't be better. White has good receivers to throw to -- when he doesn't take off and run -- and three of five starters return on the offensive line. The defense won't be as good as the offense, but it doesn't have to be.

This is more than an outstanding team, it's a team that has everything in place to be a national champion.

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