Can Big Brown deliver at Kentucky Derby for trainer Dutrow?
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) — There's a curiosity about Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby. Is he really as good as trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. has boasted? Is he the rare favorite who will win? Can he defy tradition by winning off just two prep races?
Those questions and more will be answered Saturday when a full 20-horse field, including filly Eight Belles, runs 1 1/4 miles in America's greatest race.
The way Dutrow talked leading up to the 134th Derby, there's Big Brown and a bunch of also-rans in the race.
"Who knows? I don't think anyone really knows except Dutrow," said Barclay Tagg, who will saddle Big Truck and Tale of Ekati in pursuit of his second Derby win. "He at least says what he thinks; I'm not knocking him for it. He seems to know what's going on better than I do."
Dutrow even dissed Eight Belles, who is 4-for-4 this year.
"I can't imagine there's a filly in this world that can beat Big Brown," he said.
Big Brown is the 3-1 morning-line favorite for the $2 million Derby, having won all three of his races by a combined 29 lengths. He didn't race as a 2-year-old, challenging the notion that young colts need plenty of seasoning before trying the Derby.
Favorites rarely win the Derby, either; only three have done so since Spectacular Bid in 1979, including Street Sense last year.
Another challenge facing Big Brown is overcoming the No. 20 post on the far outside, something only 1929 winner Clyde Van Dusen accomplished. But Big Brown scored a five-length victory in the Florida Derby leaving from the outside post.
Dutrow has been over-the-top with his confidence, touting Big Brown as the best and fastest horse in the race.
"I just can't wait until tomorrow when they load him in the gate. He's a dream come true, seems like he was born for this track," he said. "I'm sitting on go here, we're ready."
A dominant win by Big Brown would renew excitement about a possible Triple Crown champion for the first time since Affirmed swept the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes 30 years ago.
"We could get a standout horse after the Derby, but right now it's hard to say one of them has star quality," said Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Derby winner. "It's been a little upside down this year."
Big Brown isn't the only horse bucking Derby history.
Colonel John, the 4-1 second choice, only ran two preps this year, along with Court Vision, Monba, Tale of Etaki and Recapturetheglory. Since 1947, only Sunny's Halo in 1983 and Street Sense have won the Derby with so few preps.
"It's going to be very interesting," said Nick Zito, a two-time Derby winner who will saddle Cool Coal Man and Anak Nakal.
Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John has never been worse than second in six career starts — all on synthetic tracks made of wax-coated sand, fibers and recycled rubber.
Can Colonel John make the transition to dirt?
"I've liked what I've seen since I got here and I have no reason to change my opinion," trainer Eoin Harty said.
Eight Belles will try to become the fourth filly to win the Derby and first since Winning Colors in 1988. She's never run against the boys before. Trainer Larry Jones will try to sweep the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double, having won the race for fillies with Proud Spell on Friday.
"We think she belongs," owner Rick Porter said. "Right now, you don't know how good Big Brown is."
A 30 percent chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms was in Saturday's forecast, with a high of 73. Post time is shortly after 6 p.m. EDT.
A wet track could be good news for Derby long shots Cool Coal Man, Visionaire, Smooth Air and Denis of Cork, all of whom have won over sloppy tracks. Pyro ran second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at muddy Monmouth Park. Tale of Ekati, Big Truck and Z Humor hate the mud.
Nine of the 20 horses are coming off synthetic surfaces, and like Colonel John, Big Black Jack will be running on dirt for the first time.
Louisiana Derby winner Pyro finished 10th in the Blue Grass on Keeneland's synthetic track, the colt's first race off the dirt. Pyro is the 6-1 third choice.
Monba and Cowboy Cal ran 1-2 in the Blue Grass to give trainer Todd Pletcher a chance at ending his 0-for-19 record in the Derby.
Gayego, a 15-1 choice, raced exclusively on synthetic surfaces, but won the Arkansas Derby on the dirt in his last start.
Bob Black Jack, who starts from the No. 13 post, may be the only horse who can match the speed of Big Brown, having set a world record for six furlongs (1:06.53) in January. Others expected to contest the early lead are Cowboy Cal and Recapturetheglory.
"My horse's pace, his maximum cruising speed is where I want to set him up at," said Kent Desormeaux, Big Brown's jockey. "I don't know where it's going to be. Big Brown will tell me where that is."
Not known for his fashion sense, Dutrow planned to wear the same blue suit he donned for the Florida Derby, accented by a red tie.
"I told the Nordstrom's guy I needed to look good Saturday," he said.
In case there's a trip to the winner's circle.
Doubts about contenders abound
Soft favorite Big Brown has three career wins, the fewest for a Kentucky Derby winner in 93 years. Questions remain about other leading candidates.
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LOUISVILLE, KY. - The primaries are over. Each of the candidates, coming from Florida, California, Illinois, Kentucky, New York and Louisiana, stated their cases. Each offered legitimate arguments why they could win.
And yet each displayed flaws.
And that doesn't factor in the frenzy that will be present today: a full field of 20 horses and more than 150,000 spectators.
Welcome to the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby, a 1¼-mile test of endurance, maturity and skill that will start the Triple Crown season.
The morning-line favorite is Big Brown, who also is the choice of the handicappers who live and die by the numbers. Three victories by a combined 29 lengths. A prep season that ended with a victory in the Florida Derby, the same launching pad Barbaro took two years ago.
"He is the fastest horse in the race," said Big Brown's trainer, Rick Dutrow. "We're the horse to beat, and I feel confident that we're going to win the race."
In controlled conditions, that might very well be true. But the Kentucky Derby is anything but controlled, as the tension increases steadily throughout the day, culminating at post time at 5:04 p.m. Central.
Big Brown is a soft favorite, with only three career races, which would be the fewest for a Derby winner in 93 years. And he will be starting from the No. 20 post, which no Derby winner has done since Clyde Van Dusen won in 1929 in a walk-up start since starting gates had yet to be introduced.
Colonel John is the second choice (4-1) in the morning line, but the California-based horse has yet to run a race on dirt, which has raised some doubt, although he had solid workouts this week at Churchill Downs.
And take Pyro, which would have been a solid favorite if not for an abysmal 10th-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. Pyro's backers say it was simply a case of him not liking the synthetic surface at Keeneland.
The handicappers are so uncertain that 13 horses in the field were 15-1 or 20-1 in the morning line.
Todd Pletcher, who has won the past four Eclipse Awards as the leading trainer in North America but is 0-for-19 in Derby starts, says the difference between last year and this year is minimal at best.
"Last year, it seemed pretty obvious at the time that Street Sense was the horse to beat along with Curlin and Hard Spun," said Pletcher, who has Monba and Cowboy Cal entered this year. "I think it was a little easier to identify who the horses were last year. But there are always question marks. I think what most horses are proving is that any individual horse is capable of doing anything and maybe Big Brown is so good that he can win the Derby in his fourth start."
If Big Brown is that good, he will have to prove it quickly as he tries to overcome breaking from a post that has produced only one Derby winner in 133 years.
Uncertainty is evident looking at the list of horses regarded as the prime contenders. Add to Pyro's failure in the Blue Grass and Colonel John's lack of a victory on dirt the fact that Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial -- but was the slowest Wood winner in more than 50 years.
If you prefer a sexier story line, Eight Belles, trained by Larry Jones, who brought us Hard Spun last season, is attempting to become only the fourth filly to win the Derby. But almost no one who saw Rags to Riches beat the boys in the Belmont last season believes Eight Belles is in that class.
The problem is that more horses have stumbled into the Derby than have sprinted into it. Such hopefuls as Pyro, Visionaire, Cool Coal Man, and Big Truck all came up short in the Blue Grass. Only eight of the 20 Derby horses are coming off victories.
The feeling here is that Big Brown's talent will lose out to his lack of experience and that the Derby will end with a classic stretch duel between Colonel John, Pyro, and Monba, with Colonel John, who had an unbelievable stretch run to win the Santa Anita Derby, prevailing.
But it hardly seems like a sure thing. "In the Derby," said Colonel John's trainer, Eoin Harty, "anything can happen."
008 Kentucky Derby field
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Cool Coal Man
20-1
8 (4-1-0)
$307,531
Nick Zito
Julien Leparoux
Tale of Ekati
15-1
6 (3-1-0)
$769,200
Barclay Tagg
Eibar Coa
Anak Nakal
30-1
6 (2-1-0)
$243,416
Nick Zito
Rafael Bejarano
Court Vision
20-1
6 (3-1-2)
$367,542
Bill Mott
Garrett Gomez
Eight Belles
20-1
9 (5-2-1)
$308,650
Larry Jones
Gabriel Saez
Z Fortune
15-1
6 (3-2-0)
$386,600
Steve Asmussen
Robby Albarado
Big Truck
50-1
8 (3-1-1)
$336,880
Barclay Tagg
Javier Castellano
Visionaire
20-1
6 (3-1-1)
$250,760
Michael Matz
Jose Lezcano
Pyro
6-1
7 (3-2-1)
$1,056,718
Steve Asmussen
Shaun Bridgmohan
Colonel John
4-1
6 (4-2-0)
$825,300
Eoin Harty
Corey Nakatani
Z Humor
30-1
8 (2-0-3)
$621,450
Bill Mott
Rene Douglas
Smooth Air
20-1
7 (3-2-2)
$395,500
Bennie Stutts Jr.
Manoel Cruz
Bob Black Jack
20-1
7 (3-2-1)
$442,925
James Kasparoff
Richard Migliore
Monba
15-1
5 (3-0-0)
$577,534
Todd Pletcher
Ramon Dominguez
Adriano
30-1
7 (3-1-0)
$387,700
Graham Motion
Edgar Prado
Denis of Cork
20-1
4 (3-0-0)
$213,552
David Carroll
Calvin Borel
Cowboy Cal
20-1
6 (3-2-0)
$314,708
Todd Pletcher
John Velazquez
Recapturetheglory
20-1
6 (2-1-2)
$330,080
Louie J. Roussel III
E.T. Baird
Gayego
15-1
5 (3-2-0)
$723,420
Paulo Lobo
Mike Smith
Big Brown
3-1
3 (3-0-0)
$662,700
Richard Dutrow Jr.
Kent Desormeaux
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Five horses to watch at the Kentucky Derby
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[20] Big Brown
Can the favorite deliver? Named for the co-owner's UPS contract, the Florida Derby winner is undefeated but untested -- much like 2006 Derby winner Barbaro. Breaking from post No. 20, he'll try to lead every step. Only one horse has won from that post: Clyde Van Dusen in 1929. Opening line odds: 3:1.
[10] COLONEL JOHN Ø
On the march from California. A son of two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow, the Santa Anita Derby winner looks and runs like his sire, the all-time richest California-born thoroughbred. But this colt never has raced on dirt; his four victories have come on synthetic surfaces. Opening line odds: 4:1.
[9] PYRO
Bounce-back candidate. Until three weeks ago, the Louisiana Derby winner was the expected Derby favorite. But a sluggish 10th-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes burned Pyro's backers. Did he peak too soon or hate Keeneland's Polytrack? Jockey Shaun Bridgmohan tries to become the first black rider to win the Derby since 1902. Opening line odds: 6:1.
[5] EIGHT BELLES
Filly power against the boys. Trying to become the fourth filly to win the Derby, she's the first to attempt it since 1999. She shares the same gray/roan color as the last filly Derby champion (Winning Colors, 1988) but will have to close from off the pace. Opening line odds: 20:1.
[13] BOB BLACK JACK
Speed to burn. After setting a world record for six furlongs (1:06.53) at Santa Anita, this $4,500 bargain colt will try to become the fourth California-bred (and first since 1962) to win the Derby by pushing Big Brown on the lead. Bob Black Jack finished second to Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby. Opening line odds: 20:1.
SACRAMENTO BEE
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